Seriously

It took only 48 hours to drive a stake into the heart of her fledgling business, Kunkle said in an interview. In just two days in mid-May, Groupon sold 450 of the $30 coupons on her behalf, good for purchases any time in the next three months.

And Suria kept them coming. In October of 2000, he cautioned investors against Amazon’s bonds. Then, in February, 2001, he argued that a steady decline in Amazon’s working capital—that’s current assets minus current liabilities—spelled serious trouble. By the second half of 2001, he predicted, Amazon could face a “creditor squeeze,” meaning that the companies that supply it with goods might demand harsher payment terms, or even halt shipments. By year’s end, he suggested, Amazon’s cash hoard would dwindle to almost nothing, and the company would owe more than it could pay. The media swooned. “THIS GUY IS GOOD!” one headline read. By last spring, when Suria left Lehman to work for a hedge fund, nearly everyone, it seemed, was waiting for Amazon to die.